Rafael Dolis, what to expect
Rafael Dolis is a relief pitcher who was recently signed to a one year MLB deal by the Toronto Blue Jays of the American League for $1 million as a base salary plus incentives with a club option for the 2021 season for a $1.5 million base salary plus incentives. He's coming back to the MLB after four high quality seasons in the NPB with the Hanshin Tigers of the Central League.
What we knew about him before he went to Japan was that he was a fringey AAA/AAAA reliever in parts of three seasons for the Chicago Cubs of the National League is that Dolis didn't get many strikeouts and had issues in limiting walks. The one thing he had going for him was that he was getting a ton of groundballs (55%) in the minors and MLB too. His last two seasons in AAA were trying to say the least since his command and control looked like it would never come back.
In the 2016 season, he played for the Hanshin Tigers after a very productive 17 IP in winter ball and had his best season by ERA since A ball back in 2007. In addition, his strikeout rate went up to 9.5 K/9 while his walk rate shrank down to 4.0 UBB/9 in 34 IP as a relief pitcher. Little did anyone know, that this would be his worst season in the NPB (at least by K/BB).
Those 34 innings in 2016 convinced Hanshin to keep him around for 2017 and he rewarded them very well over the next three seasons as he has averaged 58 games pitched with a 2.46 ERA, 10 K/9 vs 2.1 UBB/9 in 57 1/3 IP. In addition, he averaged 29 1/3 saves and 39 2/3 games finished (which may actually be low since there isn't complete data for 2019 in terms of games finished so I simply put 19 down for last year since he had that many saves).
So, what can reasonably be expected from Dolis this year? We can reasonably expect about 60 IP, get around 60-65 strikeouts, walk about 18-20 batters (due to his previous problems with his control in the MLB) and have a mid to high three ERA because of his aforementioned groundball tendencies; if he doesn't have those tendencies he should be expected for a low to mid four ERA. If he can do as good as even the not so great scenario where his walk rate might go up a bit, then his 2021 option should still be picked up. We can also expect that he's going to be the main set up man in Toronto since Toronto's bullpen is pretty lacking aside from himself and their closer who is some guy you may have heard of named Ken Giles. So, Dolis will likely get the first crack at saves if Giles is unavailable, injured or got traded.
Once this deal ends he will likely be an MLB free agent this time as is common with players coming to the MLB from foreign leagues including returning players who played in the MLB before going to foreign leagues. These types of deals are generally considered "more risky" despite there rarely ever being any "busts" like Kei Igawa, and lower profile relievers who have come over from Japan. However, Chris Martin's success, Tony Barnette's success along with other foreign relief pitchers such as Seung-Hwan Oh in recent years suggests that Dolis should be plenty successful. And this means there will be more movement between the foreign leagues and MLB. Although, the only players the CPBL has that are even worth mentioning are KBO veterans Henry Sosa and Ryan Feierabend, in addition to former MLB reliever C.C Lee and former MLB starting pitcher Ariel Miranda. If you're trying to get into the foreign leagues you should try the NPB and KBO first.
What we knew about him before he went to Japan was that he was a fringey AAA/AAAA reliever in parts of three seasons for the Chicago Cubs of the National League is that Dolis didn't get many strikeouts and had issues in limiting walks. The one thing he had going for him was that he was getting a ton of groundballs (55%) in the minors and MLB too. His last two seasons in AAA were trying to say the least since his command and control looked like it would never come back.
In the 2016 season, he played for the Hanshin Tigers after a very productive 17 IP in winter ball and had his best season by ERA since A ball back in 2007. In addition, his strikeout rate went up to 9.5 K/9 while his walk rate shrank down to 4.0 UBB/9 in 34 IP as a relief pitcher. Little did anyone know, that this would be his worst season in the NPB (at least by K/BB).
Those 34 innings in 2016 convinced Hanshin to keep him around for 2017 and he rewarded them very well over the next three seasons as he has averaged 58 games pitched with a 2.46 ERA, 10 K/9 vs 2.1 UBB/9 in 57 1/3 IP. In addition, he averaged 29 1/3 saves and 39 2/3 games finished (which may actually be low since there isn't complete data for 2019 in terms of games finished so I simply put 19 down for last year since he had that many saves).
So, what can reasonably be expected from Dolis this year? We can reasonably expect about 60 IP, get around 60-65 strikeouts, walk about 18-20 batters (due to his previous problems with his control in the MLB) and have a mid to high three ERA because of his aforementioned groundball tendencies; if he doesn't have those tendencies he should be expected for a low to mid four ERA. If he can do as good as even the not so great scenario where his walk rate might go up a bit, then his 2021 option should still be picked up. We can also expect that he's going to be the main set up man in Toronto since Toronto's bullpen is pretty lacking aside from himself and their closer who is some guy you may have heard of named Ken Giles. So, Dolis will likely get the first crack at saves if Giles is unavailable, injured or got traded.
Once this deal ends he will likely be an MLB free agent this time as is common with players coming to the MLB from foreign leagues including returning players who played in the MLB before going to foreign leagues. These types of deals are generally considered "more risky" despite there rarely ever being any "busts" like Kei Igawa, and lower profile relievers who have come over from Japan. However, Chris Martin's success, Tony Barnette's success along with other foreign relief pitchers such as Seung-Hwan Oh in recent years suggests that Dolis should be plenty successful. And this means there will be more movement between the foreign leagues and MLB. Although, the only players the CPBL has that are even worth mentioning are KBO veterans Henry Sosa and Ryan Feierabend, in addition to former MLB reliever C.C Lee and former MLB starting pitcher Ariel Miranda. If you're trying to get into the foreign leagues you should try the NPB and KBO first.
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